1/30/2019 雅歌评论: AAPL, AMD, 大盘走势，SOXS，天然气（完成） (谈股论金)  8217次阅读

作者: 唐歌 , 发表于: 2019-01-29 (2131天前)
编辑: 唐歌, 时间: 星期四, 一月 31, 2019, 07:14

AAPL:

AAPL的财报其实不好，只是稍微比1/3日所发出的警告好一点点。iPhone的销售金额比去年同期下降了15%。 在大中华地区的营收下降了27%， 为132亿美元。只是因为首次公布服务部门的边际收益高达68%， 市场就大为鼓舞。服务部门包括ApplePay， 云端储存收益，iTune的歌曲下载销售，卖出的APPs， 这一些根本不需要什么成本的。边际收益高并不稀奇！

ＭＭ其实早就打定主意要炒高ＡＡＰＬ，不管财报的结果如何！这服务部门的总营收不过占全部的１2.9％, 金额在１０９亿美元。ＡＡＰＬ的市值过去可以独领风骚成为全球最有价值的企业是因为ｉＰｈｏｎｅ的销售量和盈利，没有了ｉＰｈｏｎｅ的收入，这一次从９３０亿美元营收额降为８４０亿美元的营收额，　会变成只有２００亿美元的营收。服务部门的增长率１９％其实并不高。据花旗银行的评论说：

Turning to the service business numbers, Citi's Jim Suva wondered whether, "Is Apple a services company? No. Apple is an IT Hardware product company with great services which are attached to Apple products. Without Apple products its services struggle to exist ... if Apple services were to grow over 50% the next few years it would still represent less than 25% of the company's total sales "

ＡＡＰＬ对于下个季度（到三月底）的展望其实也不好。请看下面的报道。

Apple Posts Drop in Quarterly Revenue and Profit

By Tripp Mickle

Apple Inc. posted a quarterly decline in both revenue and profit -- the first time in more than a decade for the December quarter -- underlining the tech giant's challenge to reignite slowing iPhone sales and depend more on services for growth.

The company on Tuesday also projected revenue for the current quarter would fall short of Wall Street expectations, another disappointing outlook that comes just weeks after it surprisingly slashed its revenue forecast for the December quarter.

The combination of weak iPhone sales and a downturn in China reduced revenue 4.5% to $84.31 billion in the three months ended Dec. 29, Apple said on Tuesday. Profit fell slightly to $19.97 billion, which was helped by a tax rate that declined to 16.5% from 26% a year earlier prior to the 2017 tax overhaul.

On a per-share basis, earnings in Apple's fiscal first quarter totaled $4.18. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected per-share earnings of $4.17 and $83.97 billion in revenue.

Apple's difficult month began when it cut its sales guidance for the first time in more than 15 years, projecting revenue would come in at least $5 billion lower than expected. The company has ceded its position as the world's most valuable company to both Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. in recent weeks.

Apple expects revenue of $55 billion to $59 billion for the March quarter, below the average consensus estimate of $59.98 billion, according to FactSet. Analysts expect the number of iPhones sold in the March period will decline at the steepest level in the company's history.

所以ＡＡＰＬ可以乘涨做空，可以在１６５－１７２元时做空，目标是１５２－１５５元。

ＡＭＤ：

ＡＭＤ的报告其实也不是太好，ＥＰＳ０。０８元与市场预期的相同，但营收不如预期的１４．４亿美元，只有１４．２亿美元。请看下面的报道。但股价却反弹１０％，目前在２１元附近。ＡＭＤ不能追，最好乘涨卖出，在２１－２１．５元之间。

ＡＭＤ的季报其实如俺之前所说所预料的，卖出的芯片量还是受到影响，减少了。但高端的ＣＰＵ卖价盈利更大，弥补了盈利因营收所造成的短缺。对下个季度的展望也不如预期，这显示计计算机和伺服器的需求量还继续萎缩，衰退的周期还没结束！这与ＩＮＴＣ，　ＮＶＤＡ，　ＴＳＭ的展望是一致的！

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) shares rose in the extended session Tuesday even after the chip maker's revenue and outlook missed Wall Street estimates while earnings were in-line. AMD shares rose 4.8% after hours, following a 4.6% decline to close the regular session at $19.25. The company reported fourth-quarter net income of $38 million, or 4 cents a share, compared with a loss of $19 million, or 2 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings were 8 cents a share. Revenue rose to $1.42 billion from $1.34 billion in the year-ago quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast earnings of 8 cents a share on revenue of $1.44 billion. For the first quarter, AMD expects revenue of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, while analysts have forecast revenue of $1.65 billion. Investor expectations may have been for the worse following a revenue warning from rival Nvidia Corp (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-sales-warning-sends-analysts-scrambling-to-slash-projections-2019-01-28).(NVDA) on Monday.

大盘趋势：

大盘今天在炒作昨天ＡＡＰｌ，ＡＭＤ季报不是太差，还有美联储今天会表现得很温和。从上周ＷＤＣ的财报不如预期，　展望不如预期，股价在下跌后反而大涨，显示ＭＭ的意图，不管任何情况，就是要炒高的意志力！

Ｗｈｉｒｌｐｏｏｌ昨天季报不好反而大涨１０％也是同样的道理！钢铝进口税不会取消，ＷＨＲ的成本还是相对的高，无法与得到豁免的南韩洗衣机竞争。南韩的钢铝是在当地生产，没有美国的进口关税的。原本韩国的品牌就在价格和性能上压制ＷｈｉｒｌＰｏｏｌ，现在更加压制。

另外，美国的新屋销售量明显下滑，洗衣机为重要的配套设备的需求量在２０１９年会减少需求量。所以ＷＨＱ２０１９年的展望其实不是太好。但市场不管，ＭＭ硬要炒高。所以俺昨天建议在１３５．５－１３６．５元时做空。虽然一度涨至１３７元附近。目前下跌至１３４元。俺觉得应该跌回１２５元以下！

让ＭＭ炒高的借口其实就是：

１。美联储会在今天宣布很温和利多的信息。
２。中美贸易谈判在今明两天会有利多的消息。

俺认为这是过度乐观和脱离现实的期望！所以不排除在２／１日前，变成大跌！

俺认为副总理刘鹤最迟拖到２／１日就会结束谈判回国，过完年后，再继续展开第三轮的谈判，会拖到３／２日！

ＳＯＸＳ：

半导体板块不会因为中美贸易谈判达成而改变衰退的周期。况且目前的贸易战还没有牵涉到手机，平板电脑和个人电脑。美国政府还没对这些代工的美国品牌商品开征进口税。这衰退周期是因为消费市场已饱和，暂时不需要花费更换，新生人口的增长也不会在短短１，２个月内突然大增！新产品没有新的功能和新的运用也是原因之一。

ＳＯＸＳ可以在９．２－９．５元之间买进或加码，目标是１０－１１元。

天然气：

昨天俺说可以在８４－８５元（原本是８５－８６．５元）买进ＤＧＡＺ，现在ＤＧＡＺ涨到了８９．３元附近。可以再次在９０－９５元之间先卖出。天然气未来下跌的趋势不变。但会受到气象预报的影响。ＮＯＡＡ的预测显示８－１４日的气温转向偏多。然而ＡｃｃｕＷｅａｔｈｅｒ的预测显示１１－１５日是中性稍微利空。请看下图。

这就是为何天然气在最寒冷的北极圈寒流到来时还下跌，跌破３．０美元的原因。俺说过，美国不缺天然气，过产严重，这是下跌的趋势。去年１１月中到１２月初的大涨是ＭＭ人为的炒作，远远偏离基本面。当时天然气价格被炒高到４．７８元，１月份的期货更高！俺当时就说不应超过３．５元。当然当时是百口莫辩，只能现在回头检验时证实了俺当时的说法。

这是破纪录的寒流，加上寒风效应，中西部和五大湖的温度会比正常的北极气温还冷，低温降到－５０到－６０度Ｆ，北极一般的低温很少低于－４０度Ｆ。

然而即使如此，俺估计下周的天气库存报告，就是涵盖到明日的，会大约在－２００ＢＣＦ！也许不到！不会出现像去年－３８０ＢＣＦ或过去几年都会出现超过－２２０ＢＣＦ更大的减幅的一周。原因是产量增加了很多！

补充：

ＡＭＤ的毛利会增加超过４１％，表示对高端的芯片有信心卖得多，抢ＩＮＴＣ的市场！所以ＡＭＤ暂时不要做空！ＡＭＤ若是到了２３－２４元时可以做空！ＡＭＤ的空仓位今天之前，估计在１２％－１５％之间，相当的大。ＡＭＤ有可能涨至２３元以上！